Dave Nagler - Home Game Assassin

Anyone who plays in a regular homegame has a friend who plays the role of "designated whipping boy". This is the guy who throws his money away week after week - seemingly with no hope of winning whatsoever. On Toronto's Harbourfront Poker Tour, this player is known ironically as "The Tournament Specialist".

Due to the fact that the "Tournament Specialist" takes poker so seriously and claims to have "won a lot of money online" (don't we all know this guy) it was intially entertaining to ridicule his weekly meltdowns. Week after week he would valiantly show up, fold for 3 hours, get blinded down to a few meaningless chips, and eventually go all-in with a weak hand and bust out.

After about 35 straight single table tournament losses, the chances of our resident "Tournament Specialist" to turn the tide seemed about as likely as Colin Montgomerie winning a major or Rosie O'Donnell becoming attractive. It was getting so bad/sad that the rest of us subliminally and openly started cheering for this underdog to win his first bracelet.

This week's edition of the Harbourfront Poker Tour Misplay of the Week demonstrates one hand where the Tournament Specialist doubled-up, enabling him to gain some confidence and eventually win his first bracelet.

Players in the Hand:
Adrock - tight but aggressive
Tournament Specialist - ultra Jessica-Alba tight

Setting the Stage
Blinds: 100/200
Three handed

Chip Counts:
Adrock - 4000
The Probe - 5500
Tournament Specialist - 1500

Adrock raises to 600 from the button.
The Probe folds the small blind.
T.S. raises all-in
Adrock says: "You're beating me, what the hell, I call"
T.S. shows A8o
Adrock shows QcJc

Flop, Turn and River come blank. A8 wins.
T.S. doubles up to 3100
Adrock falls to 2500

Adrock's initial raise to 600 with QJ suited was very sound three handed. After TS's all-in, there was 2200 (600 + small blind + 1500) in the pot and it cost Adrock 900 to call. His pot odds were 2.4 - 1 meaning that from a strictly pot odds perspective, he needed to have only about a 30%
(1/3.4 = 29%) chance to win the hand in order to call.

However, given The Tournament Specialist's ultra tight-ass image, was this a reasonable assumption? If Tournament Specialist held AK, Adrock's QJ was 37% to win, making it a fair call. In fact, the only hands that T.S. could hold that would make the call incorrect from a pot odds perspective were QQ KK or AA.

Adrock's call turned out to be correct mathematically as he was only a very slight underdog with his QJ against A8. However, sometimes it's best to ignore pot odds when you feel you can outplay your opponent over the long run, and you know you'll be an underdog if you call an all-in.

Why risk your money on a coin-flip (or worse) when you are confident you can wear your opponent(s)down?

Until next time,

TAKE IT DOWN BIG MAN!