Tony Guerrera

I'm still cranking out Tournament Killer Poker By The Numbers, but I found some time to schedule an appearance on Pumped On Poker, a show on Hold'em Radio brought to you by www.suitedpockets.net. Show starts at 7:00PM PDT on Wednesday 4/18. Check it out: www.holdemradio.com

It's been awhile since I've reported to all my friends here at Wise Hand Poker. The big theme of my life right now is that there are lots of ways to make money from poker outside of playing poker.

I've updated my website, www.killerpokerbythenumbers.com There's much more content there now: a tip of the month, strategy articles (well, only one right now, but that will change soon), links to Amazon to make it easy for people to find my books, and information about getting coaching from me. I'm happy with how the site is shaping up, and I'll be adding more there for my readers in the upcoming months.

I'm also starting something very exciting tomorrow night...a weekly poker roundtable discussion. $100 gets people snacks, drinks, and a great environment for discussing poker. I'm limiting these sessions to 10 people so that everyone can participate and ask me lots of questions. The next one is taking place tomorrow night (Monday 3/12) at my place in Pasadena, CA. If you are in my neighborhood, there are still spots open, so contact me if you'd like to attend. Check out my website for the schedule of upcoming events.

Regarding writing...I'm STILL working on Tournament Killer Poker By The Numbers. Promoting myself and keeping up with writing articles has been quite a crazy process, and I want to make sure that I deliver the best book I possibly can. I recently talked with my agent about a FOURTH book. I have some ideas, but I always like hearing from my fans, so if any of you out there have any ideas, I'd love to hear them!

That's about it. I hope to make a return to the tables sometime soon. Right now, I'm living vicariously through the people I'm coaching. Today, I coached someone online for an hour. This was my first session with him, and his experience had been almost exclusively multitabling fullhanded NL hold'em. Shorthanded NL hold'em is where the real money is to be made, though, so I told him that I want to convert him to a shorthanded player. After our session, he played one table of $100NL on Full Tilt and crushed it for a $400 profit in 2 hours...hearing stuff like that is almost as good as doing the damage myself! Maybe one day, I'll be in charge of a vast army of poker minions that crushes every table in its way

I hope life is treating all of you well. May your EV always be positive!

Tony Guerrera

Tournament Killer Poker by the Numbers was supposed to be finished 19 days ago, but I'm still tweaking it and adding more material to it. Talking about things like the Independent Chip Model in a rigorous but accessible way is really tough, so I hope my readers will appreciate the overtime I'm putting into that one.

In the meantime, I took some time away from my computer to make some $$$ at a home game that John Vorhaus hosted last night. It was a no limit hold'em game with $1-$2 blinds (first buy-in $100, additional buy-ins $150). The cards started flying at 7:00, but I wasn't able to arrive until 8:00 because of a dinner that ran late. I had been out all day with my girl, Evelyn, and we needed to eat before heading to JV's. Evelyn didn't play (this was her first time even seeing poker played), but I thought it would be a good opportunity to introduce her to some of the people I know while they were in their natural habitats.

As soon as I walked in the door, I smelled the aggressive action in the air. Besides the usual suspects (JV and a good friend of mine named Craig) I was greeted by some new faces: Gary Wise, Mr. Wise Hand Poker himself, along with Hollywood Dave and Tiffany Michelle. I said my hellos, introduced Evelyn to everyone, and I immediately went to work.

"Getting to work" meant sitting and folding a ton of hands. Tiffany even made a remark indicating her surprise at how many hands I was folding. It was a shorthanded game, but with all the straddles, preflop raising, and aggressive postflop play, I didn't have much incentive to become entangled in a lot of pots.

All the folding I did gave me lots of time to observe Gary, Dave, and Tiffany. JV and Craig are typically aggressive, but it was interesting to see that Gary and Dave were actually taking the role of the aggressor for themselves. It wasn't an easy game, and having Evelyn by my side didn't make it easy for me to focus, but I was able to pick my spots and build my stack to $208 in about an hour and fifteen minutes.

At that point (about 9:15PM), Evelyn needed to go home, so I left my chips on the table, and took her home. I got back an hour later to see that Gary, Dave, and Craig had accumulated some big stacks at JV's expense. Shortly after I got back, JV was brutalized for two more buy-ins. At that point, we took a break, and there was some interesting conversation with Dave having to do with his experience as a professional blackjack player.

After the break, we played until 12:13AM. I continued playing relatively tight and straightforward poker...when I was in a hand, my decisions usually involved figuring out whether betting or check/calling was the best way to extract money. After it was all said and done, I ended up +$179 in what was a fun night of playing.

I'm sitting in my apartment in Pasadena, diligently working on Tournament Killer Poker by the Numbers and missing all the action going on at Commerce's LA Poker Classic. To rub salt in the wounds, John Vorhaus (JV), Mr. Killer Poker himself, gives me a call to tell me about how he just won $200 in a prop bet. The story, as I gathered from him over the phone a few minutes ago, went as follows.

JV was at a table in tonight's $540 NLHE tournament, and he and another player noticed a camera overhead. The other guy said that he'd offer JV $100 to moon the camera. JV faked for his belt and the guy went for his wallet. At that point, JV said it would have to be $200. Another guy at the table said he'd throw in $100. So, much to the dismay of the player sitting next to him, JV mooned the camera and came out $200 richer. Moral of this story: always look for ways to profit at the poker table outside of simply playing awesome poker!

Unfortunately, JV was knocked out tonight's tournament before the dinner break, meaning that he didn't follow up his huge performance from Tuesday's $540 event (he placed 18/730 in that one for a nice payday). I'm confident that he'll get a big final table someday soon though (besides his final table at the senior's event at the 2006 WSOP). Wow...I can't believe that a guy old enough to play in the senior's event at the WSOP is mooning cameras!

Do you know why I'm so confident? After being busted from the $540 tourney, JV took the $200 he got for mooning the camera, entered a Super Satellite, and won a seat into the $10,000 main event! He won't be playing with $10,000 or even $200 on the line; instead, his ass will be on the line! I'll be rooting for JV not only because he's a great friend with his ass on the line, but also because a televised final table would be huge for my book sales...go Killer Poker

Sunday, I played in the Poker Author Challenge at Binion's in Las Vegas. I've spent a bit of time in Vegas during summer months, but this was my first visit to Vegas in January. All I can say is that it was damn cold...make sure you bring some warm clothing!

The day started at 9:00AM. The participating authors got together for a meeting and set things up. Being that I couldn't get myself to fall asleep until 4:00AM the night before, I was pretty tired. I usually make it a habit never to schedule things in the morning, but occasionally, forces outside of my control prevail.

From 10:00AM until noon, we spent a lot of time talking amongst ourselves and with people walking by to see what was going on. Meeting the other authors and talking strategy with them was great. I'm looking forward to keeping in touch with everyone I met at the tournament.

Besides meeting the authors taking place in the tournament, I also had the pleasure of meeting Wise Hand Poker's own Jennifer Newell and Garry Gates. I've been interacting with Jennifer via email for the past several months, submitting articles for American Poker Player to her, but even though she lives in West LA, which isn't too far from Pasadena, it was the first time we had met. Meanwhile, Garry, a Las Vegas local, decided not to play in the Sunday Million Guaranteed on Poker Stars to stop by and say "hi." Next time I'm in Vegas, I have to play in his home game, which now features a poker table recently procured from the Stardust. Garry and his friends better learn how to play Super Duper Twist (see my articles)--hehe.

The tournament started at noon with 48 entrants. The other authors and I put up $20 each in a last longer bet, but I declined a heads-up last longer of $50 against Killer Poker's John Vorhaus (JV). The blind structure was fairly fast, meaning that I was going to look to make moves early. Because of this, I knew that I was either going to be eliminated quickly, or that I was going to make it very far, and I know JV's style well enough to know that he probably had an edge in a last longer given how I was going to play (incidentally, I ended up outlasting him, but oh well, I'll just rob him blind in the next home game we play, which will be this coming Thursday).

We started with 3,000 in chips, and blinds started at 25-50. Early in the tournament, I was in the big blind with 85o, and after 3 players limped, I raised to 400. Everyone folded, and I showed. An orbit later, I had 97o in late position. One player in middle position limped, I raised to 300, and both the big blind and the middle position limper called. The flop came Q33 (ugh, I think it was 33...I just remember that the board was paired and that there were two low cards along with two of the same suit on the board). Both players checked to me, and I seriously considered a continuation bet. But given that my stack was 2,700, that the pot was 900, and that I thought that a player with an ace would call me, I checked. I didn't think that a continuation bet had a high enough probability of success to be worthwhile. The turn was an ace. Action was checked to me, and I was certain that the lady in the big blind, who had already established herself as an extremely passive player, had hit the ace. I checked behind, and a 7 fell on the river. Action checked to me and I checked behind. Sure enough, the lady in the big blind had A5 and took down the pot.

The blinds went up to 50-100 soon after, and between two limps preflop and the blinds, I found myself at around 2,000 in chips with the blinds at 75-150, and the average stack in the tournament approaching 4,000, I was at a point where I was beginning to look for a spot to make a move. And that spot soon came. Action folded to the button, someone who I gauged to be a relatively tight player who would open from the button with a wide range of hands but who would fold most of them to an OTT all-in. As expected, he raised to 450, and the small blind folded. I had A5 in the big blind, which decreased the probability of him having an ace, and increased the probability of him having hands in the following distribution: [KQ,KT]||[QJ,QT]||[JT]. Knowing that he'd fold these hands along with pocket pairs lower than 55, I pushed all-in. My opponent thought for awhile, and eventually he said, "well, you might think I'm stealing, so I call." He had 66, which I had put on the bottom of his pocket pair calling distribution. Fortunately, I won my 30-70 when I spiked an Ace, and I found myself in much better shape at around 4,000 in chips. You can't take stupid risks, but at the same time, you can't be afraid of dying.

Soon after that, blinds went up to 100-200, and our table broke up. I found myself at a table that seemed to have a bunch of solid players. There was a lot of aggression, and given that I had 20BB, I was content to sit and wait for good hands to go OTT with. I don't really remember many specifics from that stage of the tournament, but I do know I had somehow gotten up to about 6,000 in chips by doubling up with AK. Soon after that double up, I lost 1,500. With the blinds at 150-300, and antes at 25, a short stack pushed all-in to 1,500 from early position. I went OTT all-in to 6,000 with AK, and everyone else folded. My opponent had JJ and took down the pot. A few hands later, though, I ended up in a huge hand. A slightly aggressive player raised to 900 from early position. Action folded to me, and I had AQ in the BB along with about 4,500 chips. I sat and thought for awhile. I was debating between going all-in or just calling to see what developed on the flop. I decided that I liked calling best, since I could still do something creative with 3,900 in chips if things didn't work out.

The flop came AKQ. I wasn't very excited about this flop since I estimated that I was only ahead of about 50% of the hands in my opponent's distribution, but given the size of the pot with respect to my stack, and given that there were still about 25 players left in a tournament that only paid the top 6, I was committed to getting all my chips in. I checked, my opponent bet 1,500, I went all-in, and she called instantly. The excitement with which she called scared me, but fortunately, she only had KQ, and I took down a huge pot that brought me to just under 10,000 in chips.

Unfortunately, I couldn't do much with my chips stack. The blinds were getting so high that many of the players were in desperation mode. There was a lot of pushing going on, and I wasn't getting anything that I could justify entering a pot with. Eventually, I found myself at 5,000ish in chips with the blinds at 600-1,200 and antes of 100. I usually look to make a move sooner than this, but the dynamics of my table combined with my cards just didn't allow such a move to be made. Action folded to me in the cut-off, I looked down at a 93o, and I pushed all-in. The button looked at her cards, thought for a long time, and decided to call, leaving her with only about 2,000 in chips if she lost. The blinds folded, and my opponent showed QJs. She took down the pot and forced me to accept something around a 15th place finish. She got a free copy of Killer Poker by the Numbers, and since JV personally put a double book bounty on me, she also got a copy of his soon-to-be-released Killer Poker No Limit.

After being eliminated from the tournament, I appeared on Hold'em Radio for a long time, and I talked about everything ranging from poker to politics to relationships. It was an absolute blast. Once I stepped off the microphone, I made my rounds and thanked everyone who made the event possible, and then I went up to my room and slept. Even though I already thanked everyone, I'd like to give Sheree Bykofsky, Binon's, and Hold'em Radio one more shout-out here on Wise Hand Poker!

After I woke up, I took my friend Stacy to The Wynn, and we met up with my friend Craig, who was tearing up the $1-$3 blind NLHE game there. Craig was comped at the buffet and ate there; meanwhile, I took Stacy to eat at Bartolotta. The ambiance, the food, and the service there are all superb. It's costly, but it's worth it!

The next day, Stacy and I took our rental car to the outlet stores in Primm. She did her thing, and I searched for a gift to buy a very sweet girl named Evelyn that I've been seeing since New Year's Eve. Eventually, I stumbled upon a cute sweater and bought it.

After buying the sweater, I looked for an arcade where I could play some video games, but the arcade at Primm Valley was closed, so instead, I hit Buffalo Bill's poker room, the only poker room at the state line. The only game going there, as usual I think, was a $2-$6 spread-limit hold'em game. It was an extremely loose-passive game...I forgot that games like that still existed! The players were a bit slow and clueless about things like when they were supposed to act, which annoyed me a little since I wanted to play as many hands as possible in that game. As the game was, I think my hourly would be something in the $20/hr range...not exactly huge, but it was the only +EV to be had, so I happily accepted it. My result was +$19 after an hour of play...gas money...woo hoo! Stacy and I then drove back to Vegas and caught our flight back to So. Cal. I'd like to thank the sales associate at the Brookstone's in Vegas's airport. He was very friendly as Stacy and I used the massage chair and foot massager for about 20 minutes while we were waiting for our flight to board. We flew Jet Blue, and I got to watch some High Stakes Poker on GSN, so that was awesome.

That's the word for now. I need to crank out the finishing touches for Tournament Killer Poker by the Numbers this coming week. As always, I hope that all your moves are +EV!

Tony G

It's nice to be back! I missed posting last week because I got miserably sick. Sunday 1/7/2007 was spent throwing up all day. I was so tired and weak that I actually spent time lying down on my bathroom floor because I didn't have the energy to crawl back to my bed. If I'm taking my bathroom floor over the comfort of my Temperpedic mattress, you know something's wrong with me!

All my awesome friends made Sunday, and the few days that followed, much easier! Sure, I would have recovered even if my friend Susy didn't come over on Sunday and take care of me, or if my roommate, John, didn't go to the store to get me apple juice. But all my friends in the 626 deserve a big shout out here!

In life, we need to have people around us that support us and help us out, and that's just as true in poker as it is in anything else. To get better at poker, we need to have a group of people that we can talk poker with. We need people who will watch us occasionally when we play online. We need people who are supportive, but also people who are honest enough to say "why the hell did you donk off half of your stack?" If you don't have such people in your life, you will still get good at poker. However, having such people in your corner can make the process easier and more expedient...and most importantly, they make things more fun!

Not much has been going on in my world with regards to playing poker. I need to finish my third book, Tournament Killer Poker by the Numbers, by the end of this month, so I haven't had much time. I did manage to play in a dealer's choice home game two weeks ago, the same game that I describe in a recent article I wrote for Wise Hand Poker, Keep Fresh by Introducing Variety into your Poker Life…Learn to Play Super-Duper Twist!. In four hours of play, I took down a profit of $159...I'll take $40/hr anytime in a limit game with $2 and $3 bets and raises! After the dealer's choice games, we play a $50 NLHE tournament with rebuys in the first 15 minutes (you can rebuy only if you hit the felt). The tournament had 7 players, and there was only one rebuy (not by me). Unfortunately, I managed to battle my way to only a 4th place finish (no $$$). The tournament ended for me in typical STT fashion...the blinds were getting big, I had 7BB and pushed all-in with a bad hand (go fold equity!), was called by someone who stumbled upon a big hand, and I lost. I've done it thousands of times in online STTs, and I'll do it thousands more (I have many more STTs in my future once I finish writing Tournament Killer Poker by the Numbers). While returning to multitabling STTs for a 45ish% ITM and a 20ish% ROI will be nice, what I really need to do is find a higher stakes dealer's choice game (or start my own).

This Sunday, I'm playing in the Poker Author Challenge at Binion's. It's a $125 buy-in tournament that's open to the public, so if you are in Vegas this weekend, you should check it out.

May your EV always be positive!

-Tony G

It's 1:20AM, and I just got back from a 2 mile run. Feeling energized and refreshed, it's now time to write my first ever blog entry for Wise Hand Poker. After this, I'll be working on my first article of the year for the site.

With the coming of the new year, everyone is reflecting upon 2006 and making goals for 2007. So...I decided to join the bandwagon! 2006 was a crazy year, but I wouldn't have it any other way. Most of my time was spent in my bedroom/office in sunny Pasadena, CA, writing and playing online poker while listening to tons of music...my computer boasts a wide range of music (how many people have Slayer, Kenny Rogers, Jodeci, Mobb Deep, and Vivaldi on the same hard drive). From January to March, I wrote Killer Poker by the Numbers, which will be available in stores by the end of this month. When I wasn't writing, I kept myself sane by playing basketball and ultimate frisbee. Unfortunately, those activities ended for me shortly after finishing my first book.

I suffered my worst bad beat ever shortly after finishing Killer Poker by the Numbers. I was playing basketball, and after stealing the ball, I was in a fast break situation. I jumped up for the lay-up, got hit from behind, made the shot, but crashed into the bleachers a few feet behind the basket and tore a ligament in my left ankle (third degree sprains are NOT fun). I was in physical therapy for about three months, and to this day I'm not 100%. However, I am back to running and playing tennis. Most importantly, my vertical is almost back to where it was before the injury (being able to touch rim at 5'7" is huge)! Once I'm confident that I won't kill myself by landing on someone's foot, I'll be back on the basketball courts!

While I was injured, I played a TON of online poker. I 6-tabled the 6-max NLHE cash games and 8-tabled the STTs on Party Poker. My cash game performance was sub-par...between the injury and being shell-shocked from all the work I did on Killer Poker by the Numbers, I couldn't focus well enough. I really learned the importance of not playing on auto-pilot. Since STT strategy is fairly robotic, I switched gears, and I ended up 8-tabling my way to a top 200 ranking on Poker Prophecy (push, push, push!!!).

Summer came, and I had to put my STT glory behind me to work on my second book. I co-authored Killer Poker Shorthanded with John Vorhaus (JV). I am really happy with the work we did--we very effectively put our 100,000s of hands of shorthanded NLHE experience into it. Look for Killer Poker Shorthanded in stores some time in the second half of 2007.

The rest of 2007 was mostly spent on freelance writing, working on my personal website, and working on my third book. Whatever poker I did play was mostly in home games.

2006 was all that and much more, but I'm excited for the new adventures that await, so let's move on to 2007. Here's my list of things to do in 2007:

1.)Finish my third book, Tournament Killer Poker by the Numbers, which I need to submit to my publisher by 2/1/2007.

2.) Continue cranking out articles about poker strategy

3.) Play more poker. 2006 was spent doing a lot of writing, but not a lot of playing outside of home games and my brief online binge following my injury. I plan on hitting The Bike and Commerce regularly and getting my online multi-tabling skills back (wait, let's make that skillz...with a "z").

4.) Make my website much better than it is

5.) Begin getting consulting clients; it would be nice to have some interesting projects on the side

6.) Begin my quest to popularize hi/lo chip declare games

7.) Begin my quest to make Super Duper Twist a WSOP event (I guess I should write an article about Super Duper Twist in the near future).

8.) And, most importantly...take care of my health and make sure that I take time for all the wonderful people in my life!

Well, that's it for reflection and goal-setting. I'll be back here next week to chronicle my first week of poker in 2007. I wish all of you out there a happy and prosperous new year, and may your EV (expectation value) always be positive!

Tony G