The Poker Quiz

You are playing in a loose $2-5 game with $440. Several players limp into a pot and you join the party from the button with A 8. The big blind, who is playing his first hand at the table, checks his option.

Five players see a flop of 7 6 3.

The big blind leads out for $30 and a player under the gun min-raises to $60. Another player in early position cold calls the raise. With the nut flush draw and four other people in the pot you decide to simply call. To your frustration the big blind re-raises to $300. The UTG player reluctantly folds and the other player left in the pot makes a cold call again.

The Solution

Fold.

With the nut flush draw and two over cards you are hesitant to throw it away, but it is the correct decision. At this point there is $745 in the middle of the pot. You have to call $240 more to see the next card, giving you pretty good odds to make the call. However, two other factors come into play that beckoning you to fold.

First, if you call you are pot committed no matter what comes on the turn, even if it’s a complete blank. You can’t re-raise to scare the other players out of the pot because you would only have $135 more, and no one in their right mind will fold with those kinds of odds.

Second, you do not have as many outs as you usually would when you have the nut flush draw with two overs. If you hit your Ace or your eight, it’s unlikely that you will have the best hand since the big blind is showing so much strength. Also, it seems very possible, if not probable, that the early position player also has a flush draw. He cold called not once, but twice on the flop to re-raises - it looks like he has a hand such as K 7 or spade suited-connectors. You are drawing to only 7 outs (the remaining spades) and even if you hit on the turn you have to dodge the board pairing on the river. You are only about 24% to win the hand.

Fold with the understanding that outs are not a hard and fast rule. If other players are drawing to your flush as well it dramatically lowers the value of your hand in a mult-way pot.